Conviction Over Opinion

Our goal is to eliminate as many variables and uncertainties as we can with the best information possible so we don’t just think we’re right, but know we’re right.


problem types.

Problems fall into one of two categories, complicated or complex. Knowing which determines the approach we take.


Complicated problems have a predefined outcome. To solve them we apply rules, steps, and process to achieve a desired result. This doesn’t mean complicated problems are not hard problems, it’s just that they are understood and repeatable.


Complex problems are more of a challenge. They are unpredictable and consist of unknowns and variables. To solve them we identify, understand, evaluate many different aspects of the problem in order to create a hypothesis we can test and learn from as we narrow our focus.


one objective.

We don’t dilute the problem by trying to solve many things at once. Instead, we take a value-based approach to determine the one thing that will deliver the most value in the shortest time possible.


positive sum outcomes.

We try not to implement solutions that come at the cost of something else. Instead, our aim is to combine elements that work better together than they would alone. To do that we study various fields that we can draw influences from and that introduce new ways of thinking.


ground truth.

We want to base our approach and understanding on what we know to be true, not simply what we believe to be true. This means we trust data and facts over feeling.



While certain problems and challenges may be unique, we apply a library of frameworks and mental models to them to quickly develop a baseline understanding. This allows us to see what may be familiar to us and what might require further investigation.



The purpose of focusing on one problem and finding ground truths is to minimize risk. By eliminating as many unknowns and variables as possible we set ourselves up to identify how one component might affect another or what outside forces might come in to play. The point is to only do something once we know why we’re doing it and to have a plan for each possible outcome.